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User blog:MasterGarf/2018 Atlantic hurricane season review
As the 2018 season comes to a close, I think it may be time to start this blog. The season so far has produced: - 16 Tropical cyclones - 15 Tropical storms - 8 Hurricanes - 2 Major hurricanes The season has been above average, but a little on the low-end in terms of storm intensity. Of the eight hurricanes, three peaked as a C1, three peaked as a C2, and two peaked as a C4. This year, i'm introducing a series of categories with which I will use to grade storms. The categories are as follows: Intensity (How strong did the storm get?) Duration (How long did the storm last?) Notability (How unique was the storm?) Potential (Did it get as strong as it could have?) Damage (How destructive was it, if at all?) 0-5: F 6-9: E 10-13: D 14-17: C 18-21: B >21: A The storms will be rated on a scale of 0-5, depending on how the storm preformed. Tropical Storm Alberto Alberto was a strong tropical storm that formed in May, continuing the pre-season activity streak that began in 2015. Alberto initially struggled to intensify, but eventually reached peak winds of 65 mph before making landfall in Florida. Alberto lasted an unusually long time inland, before dissipating near Michigan the day before the season began. Intensity: 1/5 - Strong tropical storm. Duration: 4/5 - Lasted about a week, an unusually long time for a May storm. Notability: 4/5 - Formed in the caribbean as a subtropical cyclone, and reached Michigan as a tropical cyclone. Potential: 3/5 - Could have become a borderline hurricane. Damage: 4/5 - Did a couple hundred million in damage, but nothing severe. Total: 16 Grade: C+ Hurricane Beryl Hurricane Beryl was an extremely small, unusual hurricane that formed in the main development region in July. It peaked as a Category 1 hurricane before degenerating into a tropical wave. It then emerged into the subtropical atlantic, regenerating into a subtropical cyclone. Beryl dissipated a day later, north of Bermuda. Intensity: 2/5 - Category 1 hurricane. Duration: 3/5 - Lasted about a week and a half, but was a remnant low for half that time. Notability: 5/5 - Became a hurricane in the Main development region in July, was extremely small, and re-developed after dissipating. Potential: 4/5 - Could have become a Category 2 hurricane, but was stronger than initially forecast. Damage: 5/5 - From my knowledge, damage was minimal. Total: 19 Grade: B Hurricane Chris Chris formed from a low pressure area off the east coast shortly after Beryl. It slowly intensified, eventually peaking as a Category 2 hurricane. The storm accelerated northeastward and dissipated a few days later. Intensity: 3/5 - Category 2 hurricane. Duration: 2/5 - Lasted about six days. Notability: 4/5 - Peaked as a fairly strong hurricane for the month of July. Potential: 4/5 - Had the potential to become a major hurricane, but fell short. It did exceed initial forecasts though. Damage: 5/5 - I don't think Chris did much, if any damage. Total: 18 Grade: B-''' Tropical Storm Debby Tropical Storm Debby started 2018's infamous series of high-latitude subtropical cyclones (which later became tropical). Forming in early August, Debby gradually intensified to peak winds of 50 mph. Debby than began to accelerate, dissipating a day later. Intensity: 1/5 - Tropical storm. Duration: 1/5 - Lasted about two days. Notability: 2/5 - Formed in an unusual location for August, but wasn't notable otherwise. Potential: 4/5 - Wasn't forecast to get too strong anyway. Damage: 5/5 - Didn't impact any land. Total: 13 '''Grade: D+ Tropical Storm Ernesto Ernesto was more or less a repeat of Debby. It formed on August 15 as a subtropical depression, before becoming a subtropical storm, and eventually a tropical storm. It dissipated on August 18. Intensity: 0/5 - Weak tropical storm. Duration: 1/5 - Lasted three days. Notability: 2/5 - Basically the same as Debby. Potential: 3/5 - It could have gotten a little stronger. Damage: 4/5 - Caused some impacts in Europe after becoming post-tropical. Total: 10 Grade: D-''' Hurricane Florence Florence formed on August 31 from a tropical wave. It then rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane. The storm fluctuated in strength as it approached the United States, making landfall in North Carolina as a Category 1 hurricane. It moved slowly, causing major flooding. The hurricane dissipated on September 17. Intensity: 5/5 - Category 4 hurricane. Duration: 5/5 - Lasted well over two weeks. Notability: 4/5 - Didn't take an unusual track, but did cause significant impact. Potential: 4/5 - Could have approached Category 5 strength, but it gets brownie points for exploding into a Category 4 against all forecasts. Damage: 1/5 - Caused significant flooding in North Carolina. Total: 19 '''Grade: B Tropical Storm Gordon Gordon was a tropical storm that was forecast to attain hurricane strength, but it never did. The storm made landfall in Alabama before dissipating a day or so later. The remnants persisted for several days. Intensity: 1/5 - Strong tropical storm. Duration: 1/5 - Lasted about four days. Notability: 1/5 - Really not that special of a storm. Potential: 3/5 - Exceeded initial forecasts, but failed to become a hurricane. Damage: 2/5 - Caused moderate damage across the United States. Total: 7 Grade: E-''' Hurricane Helene Helene was a moderate hurricane that formed right off the coast of Africa. Peaking just short of major hurricane strength, Helene recurved out to sea, far away from most land masses. Intensity: 3/5 - Category 2 hurricane. Duration: 3/5 - Lasted nine days. Notability: 3/5 - Formed very far east, and almost became a major hurricane. Potential: 2/5 - Helene's ragged structure prevented a much stronger hurricane. Damage: 5/5 - Didn't do that much damage. Total: 16 '''Grade: C+ Hurricane Isaac See Hurricane Danny of 2015, except this was weaker. Isaac formed during the explosive month of September, briefly becoming a minimal hurricane. Isaac than approached the Leeward Islands and the Caribbean sea, where it promptly dissipated. Intensity: 2/5 - Category 1 hurricane. Duration: 3/5 - Lasted about eight days. Notability: 1/5 - Joyce 2000, Danny 2015, even Beryl of this year... Potential: 3/5 - Sat at Category 1 strength for little reason when it was forecast to hit 100 mph. Damage: 4/5 - Did a little damage in the Leewards, I guess. Total: 13 Grade: D+ Tropical Storm Joyce Another storm in 2018's subtropical series, Joyce formed as a subtropical cyclone in mid-September. It became a tropical cyclone some time later. Joyce interacted with Hurricane Helene before weakening, and eventually dissipating. Intensity: 1/5 - Tropical storm. Duration: 2/5 - Lasted about five days. Notability: 2/5 - Took an erratic track, but was very average in strength. Potential: 5/5 - Couldn't have become much more than what it was. Damage: 5/5 - Did no damage anywhere. Total: 10 Grade: D-''' Tropical Storm Kirk For once, a tropical storm of tropical origin. Kirk formed from a tropial wave, initially peaking as a minimal storm. It then dissipated, before reforming and peaking at 60 mph. Kirk then approached the lesser antilles and made landfall there, before dissipating in the caribbean. Intensity: 1/5 - Strong tropical storm. Duration: 2/5 - Lasted about a week, but was a wave for about two of those days. Notability: 3/5 - Not often a storm dissipates and re-forms the way Kirk did. Potential: 4/5 - Some models made it a hurricane but I never believed it. Damage: 3/5 - Caused some damage in the Antilles. Total: 13 '''Grade: D+ Hurricane Leslie Leslie was the longest lived storm of the season. Initially a part of the subtropical series, Leslie dissipated two days after forming in late September. Briefly becoming an extratropical cyclone, Leslie re-formed and became a tropical cyclone. Leslie spent several weeks meandering around the Atlantic before dissipating in mid-October. Intensity: 2/5 - Category 1 hurricane. Duration: 5/5 - Very long lived storm. Notability: 4/5 - Basically another Nadine, and it nearly struck Europe as a tropical cyclone. Potential: 4/5 - Got fairly strong, but it could have reached Cat 2 in my opinion. Damage: 3/5 - Caused notable damage in Europe. Total: 18 Grade: B-''' Hurricane Michael Michael was the strongest hurricane of the season. Originating from a gyre, Michael intensified into a strong hurricane and made landfall in Florida - as a near Category 5 hurricane. Michael moved over the U.S before dissipating. Intensity: 5/5 - Strong Category 4 hurricane. Duration: 2/5 - Michael was strong, but only lasted five days. Notability: 5/5 - Strongest U.S mainland landfall since Andrew. Potential: 5/5 - Exceeded every NHC forecast. I'm not gonna deduct a point over 5 mph. Damage: 1/5 - Mexico Beach will never be the same. Total: 18 'Grade: B-' Tropical Storm Nadine Nadine was a late season surprise in the main development region. Forming shortly after Michael, this storm didn't get much attention. It peaked as a strong tropical storm before dissipating a couple days later. Intensity: 1/5 - Strong tropical storm. Duration: 1/5 - Nadine lasted four days. Notability: 3/5 - Became a strong tropical storm long after the MDR season typically ends. Potential: 4/5 - Had the possibility of becoming a hurricane, but exceeded most initial forecasts. Damage: 5/5 - Did not impact any land as a tropical cyclone. Total: 14 'Grade: C-' Hurricane Oscar Forming from a non-tropical low pressure area, Oscar continued the subtropical series, before becoming a tropical cyclone. It eventually became a hurricane, peaking at Category 2 strength. Oscar than accelerated northeast and became post-tropical. Intensity: 3/5 - Category 2 hurricane. Duration: 1/5 - Lasted about four days. Notability: 3/5 - Continued the recent trend of strong late season hurricanes. Potential: 5/5 - Peaked at 105 mph, which was the NHC's highest forecast. Damage: 5/5 - Did not impact land masses. Total: 17 '''Grade: C+ Category:Blog posts